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Tropical ecosystems are critical for biodiversity conservation and local people’s livelihood sustenance. However, these ecosystems are under high pressure from land-use and land cover (LULC) change, which is further projected to intensify and increase rapidly, thereby affecting biodiversity and the provisioning of vital ecosystem services (ES). It is thus important to understand how LULC might change in the future and how such changes could affect biodiversity and ES provisioning in a given landscape of tropical ecosystems. Scenario planning has become an increasingly popular tool and technique to produce narrative scenarios of the future landscape change. Thus, quantifying changes under different land-use scenarios could be a means to elucidate the synergies and trade-offs within the scenarios. In this dissertation, the author examines the future of biodiversity and ES provisioning for different plausible land-use scenarios in southwestern Ethiopia. First, he translates four future plausible narrative social-ecological land-use scenarios ("Gain over grain", "Coffee and conservation", "Mining green gold" and "Food first") developed for southwestern Ethiopia by participatory scenario planning into spatially explicit LULC scenario maps. Results showed distinct LULC changes under each scenario. Second, the author investigates the impact of these land-use scenarios on biodiversity by specifically modelling woody plant species richness in farmland and forest. Both indicators of human disturbance and environmental conditions were used. Third, he also investigates the effect of these land-use scenarios on woody plant-based ES provisioning by combining woody plant species with household surveys on how woody plants were used by the local community. He models and predicts the current and future availability of woody plant-based ES under the four scenarios of landscape change. Overall, the findings of this dissertation show the importance of integrating future land-use mapping with participatory, narrative-based scenarios to assess the social-ecological outcomes of alternative futures. The spatially explicit maps of LULC change, biodiversity and ES (at different scales) could be used as a valuable input to support stakeholders and decision-makers to weigh the advantages and disadvantages of different development trajectories on ecosystems and human well-being and to avoid or minimize future undesirable consequences. To this end, apart from the benefits of coffee production under "Mining green gold" and crop production under "Food first" scenarios, the findings under these scenarios of large-scale agricultural intensification point to a potentially high loss of biodiversity and ES. These two scenarios could have a negative long-term impact on ecosystems and human well-being. Finally, the "Coffee and conservation" scenario, which involves the creation of a new biosphere reserve, appears to be the most sustainable scenario. This scenario could result in a sustainably managed, diversified landscape which could make major contributions to biodiversity conservation and human well-being in the region and beyond.
Though the loss of biological diversity is an ecological phenomenon, it also has a social dimension. This makes the study of the social landscape, encompassing the multitude of perspectives and aspirations by different stakeholders, highly relevant for better navigating trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and other land use objectives. Engaging with and addressing contextual understandings of biodiversity is vital to develop socially palatable solutions for biodiversity loss. This dissertation, therefore, takes a place-based approach to studying biodiversity conservation trade-offs and seeks to understand how the perspectives and aspirations of different stakeholders shape them. First, it aims to identify shared viewpoints as ensembles of perceptions and meanings about human-nature relations and biodiversity. Second, it aims to understand how biodiversity is valued and constructed in stakeholders’ aspirations towards their landscape. To this end, a convergent mixed methods approach and case study design are used. Two cases were selected that face different underlying drivers of land-use change, resulting in loss of biodiversity. The Muttama Creek Catchment area is a farming landscape in south-eastern Australia where the ongoing intensification of agricultural production threatens native biodiversity. In the Spreewald Biosphere Reserve in north-eastern Germany, land abandonment and the resulting loss of the biodiversity-rich wet meadows presents a key challenge for biodiversity conservation. Narratives and discourses provide conceptual lenses through which the author studies biodiversity conservation trade-offs. Drawing on Q-methodology, this dissertation identifies biodiversity-production discourses for the first case study and cultural landscape narratives for the second case study. Moreover, based on a participatory futures approach, the Three Horizons Framework, it elicits narratives of change that highlight opportunities for biodiversity conservation in farming landscapes. The findings highlight that despite some overlap in how stakeholders perceive biodiversity, contrasting problem framings and different biodiversity priorities present hindrances to concerted action to protect biodiversity and for collaboration. The findings also identify shared values among stakeholders. However, there is polarity and contestation around the role and importance of biodiversity in rural development.