551 Geologie, Hydrologie, Meteorologie
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Aufgrund ihrer Struktur sind insbesondere urbane Strukturen von Klimafolgen wie z.B. Hitze, Stürme oder Starkregen betroffen. Der Raum- und Umweltplanung kommt dabei hinsichtlich der sozial-ökologischen Naturverhältnisse eine wichtige Rolle zu, sofern sie die Aufgaben der Krisenbewältigung annehmen und verantwortungsvoll wahrnehmen will. Auch die Hansestadt Lüneburg steht zukünftig vor einigen Herausforderungen. Durch den allgemeinen Trend der Urbanisierung und als Teil der Metropolregion Hamburg gilt Lüneburg als beliebter Wohnraum. Die vorliegende Arbeit lenkt den Blick auf die Klimafolgenanpassung bei Starkregen in der Stadtplanung allgemein und auf die Hansestadt Lüneburg. Zunächst werden die der Ausarbeitung zugrundegelegten Begriffe sowie die Bedeutung von Starkregenereignissen in der Stadtplanung definiert und näher erläutert. Darauf folgt die Darstellung der zur Beantwortung der Forschungsfrage verwendeten Methoden. Anschließend werden in der empirischen Forschung das bisherige Auftreten von Starkregen analysiert, bestehende Adaptionsstrategien norddeutscher Städte und Regionen aufgezeigt, ein Zukunftsausblick auf Grundlage wissenschaftlicher Prognosen gegeben und konkrete, auf die Hansestadt Lüneburg bezogene Analysen und Szenarien erstellt, bevor ein Resümee der empirischen Forschung gezogen werden kann. Abschließend wird das methodische Vorgehen reflektiert, die Ergebnisse diskutiert und ein kurzer Ausblick auf zukünftige Herausforderungen gegeben.
This dissertation contributes to research on generating actionable knowledge for coastal governance to enhance the resilience of coastal social-ecological systems (SES) to climate change. It does this by providing theoretical, methodological and empirical insights on three research questions (RQs). These are: (1) what is a more actionable concept for applying the concept of resilience in coastal governance?; (2) what methods and approaches are suitable to generate actionable knowledge for coastal governance?; (3) what obstacles to knowledge co-production exist for early-career researchers (ECRs) and how can they be overcome? The RQs are addressed in five publications. For answering RQ1, the dissertation applies a research synthesis to bring together common themes and challenges documented in resilience, climate change and environmental governance literature. For answering RQ2, different methods and approaches for generating actionable knowledge are proposed and tested using a case-study in the SES of Algoa Bay, South Africa. These include (i) the analysis of stakeholder agency; (ii) the application of a stakeholder analysis; and (iii) the combination of a capital approach framework, and fuzzy cognitive mapping. Finally, for answering RQ3, the thesis provides a perspective on the obstacles that especially ECRs face, and actions that are needed to create the conditions under which knowledge co-production processes can be successful. This is done by applying a multi-method approach combining an online survey and workshop targeted at ECRs in the marine sciences. Key findings suggest that system and transformative knowledge are particularly important when applying the concept of resilience in coastal governance to generate actionable knowledge. The different methods and approaches that are proposed and tested contribute to generating both system and transformative knowledge. Firstly, they provide an overview of the capacities of different stakeholders to act, shed light on current collaboration and knowledge exchange, and enable the identification of different governance processes for coastal governance and climate change adaptation (system knowledge). Secondly, results have implications for how to improve knowledge exchange and identify leverage points that can enhance overall governance performance, thus providing recommendations on actions and processes that can enhance climate resilience in the case-study area (transformative knowledge). It is also highlighted how knowledge co-production can contribute to generating system and transformative knowledge together with stakeholders, and what actions are needed to build the capacities to translate knowledge into action. Additionally, the findings of this dissertation put forward actions that are needed at different organisational levels of the academic system to facilitate knowledge co-production processes with stakeholders involved in coastal governance. The results of this dissertation have implications for stakeholders and decision-making in the case-study area, as well as for environmental governance, climate change adaptation and broader sustainability research. Implications for stakeholders include recommendations for implementing formal commitments to share climate information across levels and sectors, establishing the role of information providers in the municipality, and reinforcing human capital within the local municipality in Algoa Bay. Findings also suggest the need for a more integrated approach to climate change adaptation in coastal planning and management frameworks. It also suggests that the conservation of environmental assets presents an important bottleneck for resilience management and needs to be further prioritised within decision-making. Implications for research include the applicability of methods beyond the context of this dissertation; a more actionable concept for approaching resilience in (coastal) governance systems; and a more critical reflection on how transformative research is conducted, and what academic foundation is needed so that it can fulfil its societal goal.
Urban areas are prone to climate change impacts. Simultaneously the world's population increasingly resides in cities. In this light, there is a growing need to equip urban decision makers with evidence-based climate information tailored to their specific context to adequately adapt to and prepare for future climate change. To construct climate information high-resolution regional climate models and their projections are pivotal. There is a need to move beyond commonly investigated variables, such as temperature and precipitation, to cover a wider breath of possible climate impacts. In this light, the research presented in this thesis is centered around enhancing the understanding about regional-to-local climate change in Berlin and its surroundings, with a focus on humidity. More specifically, following a regional climate modelling and data analysis approach, this research aims to understand the potential of regional climate models, and the possible added value of convection-permitting simulations, to support the development of high-quality climate information for urban regions, to support knowledge-based decision-making. The first part of the thesis investigates what can already be understood with available regional climate model simulations about future climate change in Berlin and its surroundings, particularly with respect to humidity and related variables. Ten EURO-CORDEX model combinations are analyzed, for the RCP8.5 emission scenario during the time period 1970-2100, for the Berlin region. The results are the first to show an urban-rural humidity contrast under a changing climate, simulated by the EURO-CORDEX ensemble, of around 6% relative humidity, and a robust enlarging urban drying effect, of approximately 2-4% relative humidity, in Berlin compared to its surroundings throughout the 21st century. The second part explores how crossing spatial scales from 12.5km to 3km model grid size affects unprecedented humidity extremes and related variables under future climate conditions for Berlin and its surroundings. Based on the unique HAPPI regional climate model dataset, two unprecedented humidity extremes are identified happening under 1.5°C and 2°C global mean warming, respectively SH>0.02 kg/kg and RH<30%. Employing a double-nesting approach, specifically designed for this study, the two humidity extremes are downscaled to the 12.5km grid resolution with the regional climate model REMO, and thereafter to the 3km with the convection-permitting model version of REMO (REMO NH). The findings indicate that the convection-permitting scale mitigates the SH>0.02kg/kg moist extreme and intensifies the RH<30% dry extreme. The multi-variate process analysis shows that the more profound urban drying effect on the convection-permitting resolution is mainly due to better resolving the physical processes related to the land surface scheme and land-atmosphere interactions on the 3km compared to the 12.5km grid resolution. The results demonstrate the added value of the convection-permitting resolution to simulate future humidity extremes in the urban-rural context. The third part of the research investigates the added value of convection-permitting models to simulate humidity related meteorological conditions driving specific climate change impacts, for the Berlin region. Three novel humidity related impact cases are defined for this research: influenza spread and survival; ragweed pollen dispersion; and in-door mold growth. Simulations by the regional climate model REMO are analyzed for the near future (2041-2050) under emission scenario RCP8.5, on the 12.5km and 3km grid resolution. The findings show that the change signal reverses on the convection-permitting resolution for the impact cases pollen, and mold (positive and negative). For influenza, the convection-permitting resolution intensifies the decrease of influenza days under climate change. Longer periods of consecutive influenza and mold days are projected under near-term climate change. The results show the potential of convection-permitting simulations to generate improved information about climate change impacts in urban regions to support decision makers. Generally, all results show an urban drying effect in Berlin compared to its surroundings for relative and specific humidity under climate change, respectively for the urban-rural contrast throughout the 21st century, for the downscaled future extreme conditions, and for the three humidity related impact cases. Added value for the convection-permitting resolution is found to simulate humidity extremes and the meteorological conditions driving the three impacts cases.
This doctoral dissertation aims to contribute to clarification of the potential of learning for water governance. The goal is to trace and understand the environmental impacts of learning through participation (research aim 1) and adaptive management (research aim 2), and the effect of learning on participation as a governance mode (research aim 3). For this goal, the researcher engages in a predominantly qualitative research design following the case study method. For every specific research aim cases are selected and analysed qualitatively according to conceptual categories and mechanisms which are defined beforehand. Quantitative studies are used to corroborate the results for research aim 1 and 2 in a mixed-method approach to enhance the validity of results. The empirical research context is European water governance, the implementation of the EU Water Framework and EU Floods Directive (WFD, FD) specifically. Eight cases of participatory decision-making across three European countries and five cases of adaptive management in Northern Germany for WFD implementation are examined to identify whether learning in these processes enhanced environmental outcomes. To detect whether governance learning by public officials occurred, the design of participatory processes for FD implementation in ten German federal states is assessed. The findings of research aim 1, understanding learning through participation and its effects on water governance, reveal that participatory planning led to learning through improved understandings at an individual and group level. Learning did, however, hardly shape effective outcomes. In the AM cases (research aim 2) managers and participants of implementing networks improved their knowledge as well as capacities, and spread the results. Nonetheless, environmental improvement was not necessarily linked to ecological learning. Regarding learning about participation as a governance mode (research aim 3) all interviewed public officials in German federal states reported some degree of governance learning, which emerged not systematically but primarily drawing on own experiences and intuition. These findings are condensed into three overarching lessons for learning in water governance: (1) Interactive communication seems to form the overall frame for participant and group learning. Framing of learning experiences turned out to play an important and potentially distorting role, for which professional facilitation and structured knowledge aggregation methods might be an im-portant counterbalance. (2) Learning did not automatically enhance environmental outcomes. It may thus not be an explanatory variable for policy outcomes, but a conditioning or intervening variable related to collective action, motivation for participation, and situating the issue at hand at wider societal levels. (3) The concepts of puzzling and powering might help understand learning as a source for effectiveness in the long-term when complemented with interest-based debates for creat-ing sufficient political agency of policy issues. Learning seen as puzzling processes might instruct acceptance and legitimization for new powering efforts. The perpetuation of learning in systematic ways and structures appears to characterize an alternative to this reflexive and strategic interplay, for which the water-related EU directives provide the basis.