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Over the past two decades, transitions research has witnessed rapid development. However, there is still a notable gap in our understanding of sustainability transitions in conflict settings and the role of international organizations in these transitions. Little is known about the dynamics of power, limiting and facilitating factors, and the role of (international) actors in sustainability transitions in conflict settings. This dissertation seeks to make contributions to these discussions by examining energy transitions in Afghanistan, a conflict-affected country, between 2001 and 2021. It specifically focuses on the involvement of international development organizations, shedding light on their role in energy access, institutional change, and imagining Afghanistan’s future energy system development.
After security, access to affordable energy is frequently reported to be Afghanistan’s most pressing need. Following the fall of the first Taliban regime in 2001, billions of dollars and dozens of international development organizations poured into Afghanistan to support the reconstruction of the country including its energy sector. In the twenty years between 2001 and 2021, the government of Afghanistan and the international development organizations worked on various aspects of energy system development despite on-going insurgency and threats against infrastructural projects. After two decades of armed opposition, the Taliban regained power on August 15, 2021, resulting in the suspension of operations for most development organizations, with only a few humanitarian agencies remaining active. Within this context, this thesis explores topics such as the country’s energy potential and policy, the role of international development organizations in the energy sector, and visions for a future energy system in Afghanistan.
The research conducted for this thesis employed a qualitative case study approach, utilizing semi-structured interviews and document analysis. The key findings of this research can be summarized as follows: Afghanistan possesses a renewable energy potential exceeding 300 GW, encompassing 23 GW of hydro power (across all scales), 220 GW of solar power, 67 GW of wind power, and 4 GW of biomass. However, the domestic installed capacity remains limited, ranging between 600 and 700 MW, mainly sourced from large hydro facilities and thermal plants, with renewable energy playing a minor role. Throughout the period of 2001-2021, Afghanistan heavily relied on electricity imports from Central Asian countries, fulfilling around 80% of its electricity needs. International development organizations played a crucial role in assisting the governments of Afghanistan in establishing a regulatory framework for the energy sector. Notably, they contributed to the development of key laws and policy documents, such as the Renewable Energy Policy, which outlines Afghanistan's objective of sourcing 95% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2032.
Further findings of this research concern firstly the role of international organizations in institutional change and secondly the energy imaginaries in the conflict-affected setting of Afghanistan. Throughout their 20-year involvement, international organizations sought
VIII International Organizations and Energy Transitions in Afghanistan
wide-ranging institutional changes in relation to the energy sector of Afghanistan. These included (a) the development of a regulatory framework for the sector involving several organizational and regulative changes, (b) extensive privatization efforts including corporatization of the state-owned energy utility DABS, and (c) empowerment of women in both general and energy-specific contexts.
In terms of energy imaginaries, a dominant imaginary is that of ‘Afghanistan as an energy corridor’ between Central Asia and South Asia, which is supported by the government and several powerful actors. When considering energy sources, experts advocate for a least-cost supply approach, regardless of the specific energy sources. Additionally, experts recommend implementing small-scale off-grid projects in remote and sparsely populated rural areas, while advocating for grid-connected large-scale projects in urban areas. The suggestion for off-grid projects stems from their resilience in the face of armed conflicts, such as the numerous attacks documented on energy projects in Afghanistan. This research contributes to literature on the role of international organizations in sustainability transitions, transitions in conflict settings, and the energy sector of Afghanistan.
Keywords: Afghanistan; International development organizations; Energy Transitions; Sustainability transitions; Fragile and conflict settings