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The increasing perils of connectivity technologies in the context of large satellite constellations come alongside with legal aspects concerning the protection of the space environment. The interplay of connectivity and sustainability must be regulated. To analyse the legal measures and tools regulating the risks, both sides of the problem are taken into consideration. The technological side of large satellite constellations is summarized under the term cybersecurity. Cyber is a code-based system, i.e. at first sight it requires a specialized field of law. This holds true on space sustainability as well. Large satellite constellations raise the discussion on space debris and junk. The consensus on the LTS guidelines by COPUOS at UNISPACE+50 in 2018 constitutes a milestone in Space Law. Space sustainability requires a particular adoption of legal norms: the idea is very similar to the subject of cybersecurity. Since both areas of issue are internationally driven and have multilateral impact, self-regulation proves ineffective. The genesis of reliable and uniform legal rules requires a different approach considering the multilevel systems of obligations with different binding authority. This thesis evaluates the balance between the future of connectivity and space sustainability in the context of large satellite constellations by considering the impact of legal rules with different binding authority.
The paper presents first results and ideas from an ongoing project dealing with the construction of a private closed-end fund for the municipal area of Hannover, Germany. It is argued that for assessing the economic prospects of the project it is helpful to apply a Monte Carlo (MC) simulation approach. Thereby, it is possible to account for contamination risks. Questions that must be solved are (1) to find probability distributions for the uncertain variables and the correlations among these, (2) to adequately integrate legal and political parameters. Despite its merits with regard to accounting for contamination risks in investment appraisal a MC simulation may not be useful for every kind of risk. Integrating legal and political factors using a solely stochastic approach appears not to be convincing, since this kind of uncertainty results from the strategic interaction of agents. Therefore, the potential value of using game theory and institutional analysis is stressed.
