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Analysis of user behavior
(2020)
Online behaviors analysis consists of extracting patterns from server-logs.
The works presented here were carried out within the “mBook” project which aimed to develop indicators of the quantity and quality of the learning process of pupils from their usage of an eponymous electronic textbook for History. In this thesis, we investigate several models that adopt different points of view on the data. The studied methods are either well established in the field of pattern mining or transferred from other fields of machine learning and data-mining.
We improve the performance of archetypal analysis in large dimensions and apply it to unveil correlations between visibility time of particular objects in the e-textbook and pupils’ motivation. We present next two models based on mixtures of Markov chains. The first extracts users’weekly browsing patterns. The second is designed to process essions at a fine resolution, which is sine qua non to reveal the significance of scrolling behaviors. We also propose a new paradigm for online behaviors analysis that interprets sessions as trajectories within the page-graph. In this respect, we establish a general framework for the study of similarity measures between spatio-temporal trajectories, for which the study of sessions is a particular case. Finally, we construct two centroid-based clustering methods using neural networks and thus lay the foundations for unsupervised behaviors analysis using neural networks.
Keywords: online behaviors analysis, educational data mining, Markov models, archetypal analysis, spatio-temporal trajectories, neural network
The significance of selecting suitable talent
A company’s success is significantly influenced by the professionalism and quality of decision-making, especially selecting decisions to hire suitable talent. The term “talent” can be taken to mean as someone who has talent (talent as the sum of one’s abilities) and someone who is a talent. Leadership talent makes a difference in organizational success, has the potential to succeed as a leader, and thus will
hold corresponding pivotal positions. In this book, we focus on the selection and acquisition of leadership talent, since such talent is more difficult to find in the market and, at the same time, more challenging to select. Selecting these talented individuals is one of the most critical components of effective organizations. Hardly any other corporate decision has such significant effects on corporate success as talent selection. Recruiting and personnel selection are also the first steps in promoting capability building and creating successful teams. For example, Warren Buffet, renowned for his investing prowess, says, “I have only two jobs. One is to attract and keep outstanding managers to run our various operations”. This highlights the need for an effective and efficient personnel selection process and to improve the diagnostic performance of such procedures. In addition, the increasing diversity of applicants, global competitiveness, and the lack of qualified personnel in specific labor and job markets also increase the importance of high-quality personnel selection processes.
Online marketing, especially Paid Search Advertising, has become one of the most important paid media channels for companies to sell their products and services online. Despite being under intensive examination by a number of researchers for several years, this topic still offers interesting opportunities to contribute to the com- munity, particularly because of its large economic impact and practical relevance as well as the detailed and widely unfiltered view of consumer behavior that such marketing offers. To provide answers to some of the important questions from advertisers in this con- text, I present four papers in my thesis, in which I extend previous works on optimization topics such as click and conversion prediction. I apply and extend methods from other fields of research to specific problems in Paid Search. After a short introduction, I start with a paper in which we illustrate a new method that helps advertisers to predict conversion probabilities in Paid Search using sparse keyword- level data. We address one of the central problems in Paid search advertising, which is optimizing own investments in this channel by placing bids in keyword auctions. In many cases, evaluations and decisions are made with extremely sparse data, al- though anecdotal evidence suggests that online marketing is a typical
Quality of life and satisfaction with life are of particular importance for individuals as well as for society concerning the “demographic change” with now longer retirement periods. This study will contribute to the life satisfaction discussion and quantifies life satisfaction and pattern of explanation before and after such a prominent life cycle event, the entrance into retirement. In particular, with the individual longitudinal data and 33 waves of the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) and the appropriate microeconometric causal fixed effects robust panel methods we ask and quantify if actual life satisfaction indeed is decreasing before re-tirement, is increasing at the entrance into retirement, and is decreasing then after certain periods back to a foregoing level. Thus, we ask if such an anticipation and adaptation pattern– as known from other promi-nent events – is also to discover for life satisfaction before and after retirement in Germany. Main result: Individual and family situation lift life satisfaction after retirement for many years, the (former) occupational situation, however, absorbs this effect both for pensioners and civil service pensioners. It remains only one period of improvement with close anticipation and adaptation at entering retirement but no furthermore significant change compared to pre-retirement life satisfaction. This holds for pensioners (German pension insurance, GRV) but there is no significant effect at all for civil service pensioners.
The world wide population growth and the increasing water scarcity endanger more and more the human society. Water saving measures alone will not be sufficient to solve all associated problems. Therefore, people in arid countries might come back to any kind of water available. In this context the way people regard wastewater must change in terms that it has to be recognized as a water resource. The reuse of wastewater, treated and untreated, for irrigation purposes in agriculture is already established in some semi-arid and arid countries. Countries with absolute water scarcity like Israel might not only be forced to reduce their water consumption, but even to transfer reused water to other sectors. Concerns of authorities and the general public about potential health risks are completely understandable. The health risks of wastewater are mainly originating from pathogens which are negatively correlated with its treatment. Therefore, the quality of a wastewater effluent derived from mechanical-biological treatment can be further improved by additional treatment steps like soil aquifer treatment (SAT). This process is adopted at the Israeli Shafdan facility in the south of Tel Aviv. Conventionally treated wastewater is applied on surface basins from where it percolates into the coastal plain aquifer which supplies approximately one quarter of Israel ́s drinking water. After a certain residence time in the subsurface the water is recovered by wells surrounding the recharge area. Although the pumping regime creates a hydraulic barrier to the pristine groundwater, concerns exist that a contamination of the surrounding drinking water wells could occur. So far, little is known about the removal of organic trace pollutants during the SAT process in general and for the Shafdan site in particular. Consequently, the need arose to study the purification power of the SAT process in terms of the removal of organic trace pollutants. For this purpose reliable wastewater tracers are essential to be able to differentiate between degradation and sorption processes on the one hand and dilution with pristine groundwater on the other hand. Based on their chemical properties, their worldwide usage in a variety of foodstuffs and beverages, and first data about the fate and occurrence of sucralose, artificial sweeteners came into the focus as promising tracer candidates.
Thus, in the present work an analytical method for the simultaneous determination of seven commonly used artificial sweeteners in different water matrices, like surface water and wastewater, was developed (see chapter 2). The method is based on the solid phase extraction (SPE) of the analytes by a styrene-divinylbenzene (SDB) copolymer material, and the analysis by liquid chromatography-electrospray ionization tandem mass-spectrometry (LC-ESI- MS/MS). The sensitivity in negative ionization mode was considerably enhanced by postcolumn addition of the alkaline modifier tris(hydroxymethyl) aminomethane. In potable water, except for aspartame and neohesperidine dihydrochalchone, absolute recoveries >75 % were obtained for all analytes under investigation, but were considerably reduced due to matrix effects in treated wastewater. The widespread distribution of the artificial sweeteners acesulfame, saccharin, cyclamate, and sucralose in the aquatic environment was proven. Concentrations in two German wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) influents ranged up to 190 μg/L for cyclamate, several tens of μg/L for acesulfame and saccharin, and about 1 μg/L for sucralose. For saccharin and cyclamate removal rates >90 % during wastewater treatment were observed, whereas acesulfame and sucralose turned out to be very persistent. As a result of high influent concentrations and low removal rates in WWTPs, acesulfame was the dominant sweetener in German surface waters with concentrations up to 2.7 μg/L. The detection of acesulfame and sucralose in recovery wells in the Shafdan SAT site in Israel in the μg/L range was a promising sign for their possible use as anthropogenic markers. As acesulfame and sucralose showed a pronounced stability in WWTPs and were detected in recovery wells of the SAT site in Israel it became worthwhile to assess their tracer suitability compared to other organic trace pollutants suggested as anthropogenic markers in the past (see chapter 3). Therefore, the prediction power of the two sweeteners was evaluated in comparison with the antiepileptic drug carbamazepine (CBZ), the X-ray contrast medium diatrizoic acid (DTA) and two benzotriazoles (1H-benzotriazole (BTZ) and its 4-methyl analogue (4TTri)). The concentrations of these compounds and their ratios were tracked from WWTPs with different treatment technologies, to recipient waters and further to river bank filtration (RBF) wells. Additionally, acesulfame and sucralose were compared with CBZ during advanced wastewater treatment by SAT in Israel. Only the persistent compounds acesulfame, sucralose, and CBZ showed stable ratios when comparing influent and effluent
concentrations of four German WWTPs with conventional wastewater treatment. However, by the additional application of powdered activated carbon in a fifth WWTP CBZ, BTZ, and 4-TTri were selectively removed resulting in a pronounced shift of the concentration ratios towards the nearly unaffected sweeteners. Results of a seven months monitoring program along the rivers Rhine and Main showed an excellent correlation between CBZ and acesulfame concentrations (r2 = 0.94), and still good values when correlating the concentrations with both benzotriazoles (r2 = 0.66 - 0.82). In RBF wells acesulfame and CBZ were again the compounds with the best concentration correlation (r2 = 0.85).
Wind energy is expected to become the largest source of electricity generation in Europe’s future energy mix with offshore wind energy in particular being considered as an essential component for secure and sustainable energy supply. As a consequence, future electricity generation will be exposed to an increasing degree to weather and climate. With planning and operational lifetimes of wind energy infrastructure reaching climate time scales, adaptation to changing climate conditions is of relevance to support secure and sustainable energy supply. Premise for success of wind energy projects is the ability to service financial obligations over the project lifetime. Though, revenues(viaelectricity generation) are exposed to changing climate conditions affecting the wind resource, operating conditions or hazardous events interfering with the wind energy infrastructure. For the first time, a procedure is presented to assess such climate change impacts specifically for wind energy financing. At first, a generalised financing chain for wind energy is prepared to(qualitatively) trace the exposure of individual cost elements to physical climate change. In this regard, the revenue through wind power production is identified as the essential component within wind energy financing being exposed to changing climate conditions. This implies the wind resource to be of crucial interest for an assessment of climate change impacts on the financing of wind energy. Therefore, secondly, a novel high-resolution experimental modelling framework with the non-hydrostatic extension of the regional climate model REMO is set up to generate physically consistent climate and climate change information of the wind resource across wind turbine operating altitudes. With this setup, enhanced simulated intra-annual and inter-annual variability across the lower planetary boundary layer is achieved, being beneficial for wind energy applications, compared to state-of-the-art regional climate model configurations. In addition, surrogate climate change experiments with this setup disclose vertical wind speed changes in the lower planetary boundary layer to be indirectly affected by temperature changes through thermodynamically-induced atmospheric stability alterations. Moreover, air density changes are identified to occasionally exceed the net impact of wind energy density changes originating from changes in wind speed. This supports the consideration of air density information (in addition to wind speed) for wind energy yiel assumptions. Thirdly, the generated climate and climate change information of the wind resource are transferred to a simplified but fully-fledged financial model to assess the financial risk of wind energy project financing with respect to changing climate conditions. Sensitivity experiments for an imaginary offshore wind farm located in the German Bight reveal the long-term profitability of wind energy project financing not to be substantially affected by changing wind resource conditions, but incidents with insufficient servicing of financial obligations experience changes exceeding -10% to 14%. The integration of wind energy-specific climate and climate change information into existing financial risk assessment procedures would illustrate a valuable contribution to enable climate change adaptation for wind energy. In particular information about intra-annual and inter-annual variability change of the wind resource originating from changing climate conditions permit the quantification of additional financial risk associated to debt repayment obligations and, subsequently, enable the development of suitable preventive economic measures. Though, additional efforts in combination with future technical development are necessary to provide essential additional information about the bandwidth of climate change and uncertainties associated to such sector-specific climate and climate change information.
Organizational culture is widely acknowledged to be a driver of organizational effectiveness. However, existing empirical research tends to focus on investigating the links between individual, isolated culture dimensions and effectiveness outcomes. This approach is at odds with the theoretical roots of organizational culture and does not do justice to the complex reality that most organizations face. This issue is addressed by this dissertation, which is comprised of four studies. Study 1 investigated the psychometric quality and cultural equivalence of three culture measures in a German context, based on a sample of 172 employees in a bank. The results suggested that the German versions of the Denison Organizational Culture Survey and the Organizational Culture Profile performed satisfactorily, while results regarding the GLOBE survey fell short of expectations. The study contributes to facilitating cross-cultural research on organizational culture by providing evidence on instruments that can be applied in international settings, which is an important prerequisite for investigating relationships between culture and effectiveness in an increasingly globalized economy. Study 2 reviewed the literature on the link between culture and effectiveness with a focus on studies that treat organizational culture as a holistic phenomenon. The review yielded four kinds of holistic approaches (aggregation-based, agreement-based, moderation- or mediation-based, and configuration-based). For each approach, main findings, theoretical foundations, and specific avenues for future research are provided. Study 3 investigated how a change in organizational culture induced by an M&A project impacts employee commitment. Based on a sample of 180 employees in a German organization, the findings suggest that individuals perceive cultural change differently, that cultural stability is positively related to employee commitment, and that group-level leader-member exchange and individual self-efficacy moderate this relationship. The study thus contributes to the literature by enabling a better understanding of how cultural change affects employee-related effectiveness factors and by illuminating important contextual factors at the group and the individual level. Study 4 introduced a new theoretical perspective (set theory) and a novel methodology (fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis) to the field of organizational culture. Across two samples (1170 employees in a financial service provider and 998 employees in fashion retailer), results indicated that culture dimensions do not operate in isolation, but jointly work together in achieving different effectiveness outcomes. The study offers new theoretical and methodological impulses for investigating the culture-effectiveness link. In sum, this dissertation contributes to the literature by providing novel insights that can help researchers to analyze the relationship between organizational culture and effectiveness in a manner that acknowledges both the complexities of organizational reality and of organizational culture´s theoretical roots. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed, and promising directions for future research are identified.
In response to the challenges of the energy transition, the German electricity network is subjected to a process of substantial transformation. Considering the long latency periods and lifetimes of electricity grid infrastructure projects, it is more cost-efficient to combine this need for transformation with the need to adapt the grid to future climate conditions. This study proposes the spatially varying risk of electricity grid outages as a guiding principle to determine optimal levels of security of electricity supply. Therefore, not only projections of future changes in the likelihood of impacts on the grid infrastructure were analyzed, but also the monetary consequences of an interruption. Since the windthrow of trees was identified a major source for atmospherically induced grid outages, a windthrow index was developed, to regionally assess the climatic conditions for windthrow. Further, a concept referred to as Value of Lost Grid was proposed to quantify the impacts related to interruptions of the distribution grid. In combination, the two approaches enabled to identify grid entities, which are of comparably high economic value and subjected to a comparably high likelihood of windthrow under future climate conditions. These are primarily located in the mid-range mountain areas of North-Rhine Westphalia, Baden-Württemberg and Bavaria. In comparison to other areas of less risk, the higher risk in these areas should be reflected in comparably more resilient network structures, such as buried lines instead of overheadlines, or more comprehensive efforts to prevent grid interruptions, such as structural reinforcements of pylons or improved vegetation management along the power lines. In addition, the outcomes provide the basis for a selection of regions which should be subjected to a more regionally focused analysis inquiring spatial differences (with respect to the identified coincidence of high windthrow likelihoods and high economic importance of the grid) among individual power lines or sections of a distribution network.