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Online advertising has become one of the most important dimension of corporate communications. In recent years, a new form of advertising on the Internet has emerged: real-time advertising. Among others, it allows companies to identify potential customers and target them with respect to their interests. In this way, real-time advertising can increase advertising effectiveness and it could, at the same time, improve user experience. With the emerge of this new form of advertising, statistical models have become even more important because they are now being increasingly used to predict online user behavior. The articles included in this dissertation analyze user-level clickstream data generated during multi-channel advertising campaigns (including TV advertising) and during real-time auctions. The goal of the analyses conducted here is to better understand advertising effects and to support decision-making in this context. Most of the analyses are based on Bayesian models. These models allow for a very flexible structure, which enables researchers to model, for instance, heterogeneity across different types of users or non-linear parameters such as users´ reaction times and exponential decay of advertising effects. In addition, these models allow for the inclusion of prior knowledge of parameter distributions, and, therefore, they are well suited for iterative analyses based on clickstream data. Bayesian models can be evaluated in different ways. Instead of only relying on statistical metrics, the articles included in this dissertation aim to estimate the economic value of these models based on their predictive performance. Although this measure can only approximate their true economic value, this approach can be used to compare and evaluate different models and to illustrate the impact of predictive analyses for companies in the context of big data. This dissertation contributes to both information systems research and marketing research and has many managerial implications. First, a process is developed to determine optimal sample sizes representing the best balance between computational costs and predictive accuracy in e-commerce in particular and big data contexts in general. In practice, this process can be used to reduce infrastructure and computational costs. Second, the articles included here describe models that can be used to measure the impact of television ads on users' online shopping behavior. The models can provide insights concerning the effectiveness of individual television ads, the interactions between different advertising channels and the difference in user behavior of TV-induced customers and their non-TV-induced counterparts. Thereby, the models could support decision-making with respect to future advertising campaigns and targeting. Third, the articles describe several possibilities to extend and improve decision support systems currently used in e-commerce and marketing. These improvements enable practitioners to predict users´ interests for arbitrary products and services by using corresponding websites as dependent variables. This approach can be used to improve the effectiveness of real-time advertising campaigns, especially those intended to raise brand awareness among customers.
Since 2000, data generation has been growing rapidly from various sources, such as Internet usage, mobile devices and industrial sensors in manufacturing. As of 2011, these sources were responsible for a 1.4-fold annual data growth. This development influences practice and science equally and led to different notations, one of the most popular one is Big Data. Besides organization with a business model based solely on Big Data, companies have started to implement new technologies, methodologies and processes in order to deal with the influx of data from different sources and structures and benefit the most of it. As the progress of the implementation and the degree of professionalism regarding data analysis differs amongst industries and companies, latter ones are faced with a lack of orientation regarding their own stage of development and existing relevant capabilities in order to deal with the influx of data as only a few best practices exist. Therefore, this research project develops a maturity model for the assessment of companies capabilities in the field of data analysis with a focus on Big Data. Basis for the model development is a construction model, developed along the criteria of Design Science Research. The developed model contains the different levels of maturity and related measurements for the evaluation of a companies Big Data capabilities with a focus on topics along the dimensions data and organization. The developed model has been evaluated based an application to different companies in order to ensure the practical relevance. The structure of the thesis is the following: In a first step, a structured literature review is carried out, focussing on existing maturity models in the field of Big Data and nearby fields as Business Intelligence and Performance Management Systems. Based on the identified white spots, a design science research oriented construction model for the maturity model development is designed. This model is applied subsequently.
In past digital health interventions, an issue has been that participants drop out over time which is referred to as the "law of attrition" (Eysenbach, 2005). Based on this, the study proposes that though initially, participants respond to the intervention, there is a hypothesized second diminishing effect of an intervention. However, the study suggests that on top, there is a third effect. Independent of the individual notification or nudge, people could build the knowledge, skills and practice needed to independently engage in the behavior themselves (schraefel and Hekler, 2020). Using behavioral theory and inspired by prior animal computational models of behavior, the thesis proposes a dynamical computational model to allow for a separation of intervention and internalization. It is targeted towards the specific case of the HeartSteps intervention that could not explain a diminishing immediate effect of the intervention, second hypothesized effect, while a person’s overall steps remained constant, third effect (Klasnja et al., 2019). The study incorporates a habituation mechanism from learning theory that can account for the immediate diminishing effect. At the same time, a reinforcement mechanism allows participants to internalize the message and engage in behavior independently. The simulation shows the importance of a participant’s responsiveness to the intervention and a sufficient recovery period after each notification. To estimate the model, the study uses data from the HeartSteps intervention (Klasnja et al., 2019; Liao et al., 2020), a just-in-time adaptive intervention that sent two to five walking suggestions per day. The study runs a Bayesian estimation with Stan in R. Additional validation tests are needed to estimate the accuracy of the model for different individuals. It could however serve as a template for future just-intime adaptive interventions due to its generic structure. In addition, this model is of high practical relevance as its derived dynamics can be used to improve future walking suggestions and ultimately optimize notification-based digital health interventions.
Mental health is an important factor in an individuals' life. Online-based interventions have been developed for the treatment of various mental disorders. During these interventions, a large amount of patient-specific data is gathered that can be utilized to increase treatment outcomes by informing decision-making processes of psychotherapists, experts in the field, and patients. The articles included in this dissertation focus on the analysis of such data collected in digital psychological treatments by using machine learning approaches. This dissertation utilizes various machine learning methods such as Bayesian models, regularization techniques, or decision trees to predict different psychological factors, such as mood or self-esteem, dropout of patients, or treatment outcomes and costs. These models are evaluated using a variety of performance metrics, for example, receiver operating characteristics curve, root mean square error, or specialized performance metrics for Bayesian inference. These types of analyses can support decision- making for psychologists and patients, which can, in turn, lead to better recommendations and subsequently to increased outcomes for patients and simultaneously more insight about the interplay between psychological factors. The analysis of user journey data has not yet been fully examined in the field of psychological research. A process for this endeavor is developed and a technical implementation is provided for the research community. The application of machine learning in this context is still in its infancy. Thus, another contribution is the exploration and application of machine learning techniques for the revelation of correlations between psychological factors or characteristics and treatment outcomes as well as their prediction. Additionally, economic factors are predicted to develop a process for treatment type recommendations. This approach can be utilized for finding the optimal treatment type for patients on an individual level considering predicted treatment outcomes and costs. By evaluating the predictive accuracy of multiple machine learning techniques based on various performance metrics, the importance of considering heterogeneity among patients' behavior and affect is highlighted in some articles. Furthermore, the potential of machine learning-based decision support systems in clinical practice has been examined from a psychotherapists' point of view.
Detecting and Assessing Road Damages for Autonomous Driving Utilizing Conventional Vehicle Sensors
(2021)
Environmental perception is one of the biggest challenges in autonomous driving to move inside complex traffic situations properly. Perceiving the road's condition is necessary to calculate the drivable space; in manual driving, this is realized by the human visual cortex. Enabling the vehicle to detect road conditions is a critical and complex task from many perspectives. The complexity lies on the one hand in the development of tools for detecting damage, ideally using sensors already installed in the vehicle, and on the other hand, in integrating detected damages into the autonomous driving task and thus into the subsystems of autonomous driving. High-Definition Feature Maps, for instance, should be prepared for mapping road damages, which includes online and in-vehicle implementation. Furthermore, the motion planning system should react based on the detected damages to increase driving comfort and safety actively. Road damage detection is essential, especially in areas with poor infrastructure, and should be integrated as early as possible to enable even less developed countries to reap the benefits of autonomous driving systems. Besides the application in autonomous driving, an up-to-date solution on assessing road conditions is likewise desirable for the infrastructure planning of municipalities and federal states to make optimal use of the limited resources available for maintaining infrastructure quality. Addressing the challenges mentioned above, the research approach of this work is pragmatic and problem-solving. In designing technical solutions for road damage detection, the researchers conduct applied research methods in engineering, including modeling, prototyping, and field studies. They utilize design science research to integrate road damages in an end-to-end concept for autonomous driving while drawing on previous knowledge, the application domain requirements, and expert workshops. This thesis provides various contributions to theory and practice. The investigators design two individual solutions to assess road conditions with existing vehicle sensor technology. The first solution is based on calculating the quarter-vehicle model utilizing the vehicle level sensor and an acceleration sensor. The novel model-based calculation measures the road elevation under the tires, enabling common vehicles to assess road conditions with standard hardware. The second solution utilizes images from front-facing vehicle cameras to detect road damages with deep neural networks. Despite other research in this area, the algorithms are designed to be applicable on edge devices in autonomous vehicles with limited computational resources while still delivering cutting-edge performance. In addition, the analyses of deep learning tools and the introduction of new data into training provide valuable opportunities for researchers in other application areas to develop deep learning algorithms to optimize detection performance and runtime. Besides detecting road damages, the authors provide novel algorithms for classifying the severity of road damages to deliver additional information for improved motion planning. Alongside the technical solutions, they address the lack of an end-to-end solution for road damages in autonomous driving by providing a concept that starts from data generation and ends with servicing the vehicle motion planning. This includes solutions for detecting road damages, assessing their severity, aggregating the data in the vehicle and a cloud platform, and making the data available via that platform to other vehicles. Fundamental limitations in this dissertation are due to boundaries in modeling. The pragmatic approach simplifies reality, which always distorts the degree of truth in the result.
Maximizing the value from data has become a key challenge for companies as it helps improve operations and decision making, enhances products and services, and, ultimately, leads to new business models. While enterprise architecture (EA) management and modeling have proven their value for IT-related projects, the support of enterprise architecture for data-driven business models (DDBMs) is a rather new and unexplored field. The research group argues that the current understanding of the intersection of data-driven business model innovation and enterprise architecture is incomplete because of five challenges that have not been addressed in existing research: (1) lack of knowledge of how companies design and realize data-driven business models from a process perspective, (2) lack of knowledge on the implementation phase of data-driven business models, (3) lack of knowledge on the potential support enterprise architecture modeling and management can provide to data-driven business model endeavors, (4) lack of knowledge on how enterprise architecture modeling and management support data-driven business model design and realization in practice, (5) lack of knowledge on how to deploy data-driven business models. The researchers address these challenges by examining how enterprise architecture modeling and management can benefit data-driven business model innovation. The mixed-method approach of this thesis draws on a systematic literature review, qualitative empirical research as well as the design science research paradigm. The investigators conducted a systematic literature search on data-driven business models and enterprise architecture. Considering the novelty of data-driven business models for academia and practice, they conducted explorative qualitative research to explain "why" and "how" companies embark on realizing data-driven business models. Throughout these studies, the primary data source was semi-structured interviews. In order to provide an artifact for DDBM innovation, the researchers developed a theory for design and action. The data-driven business model innovation artifact was inductively developed in two design iterations based on the design science paradigm and the design science research framework.
Die Einführung von Industrie 4.0 und der damit verbundene Wandel des Produktionsumfeldes führen zu neuen Herausforderungen, bieten auf der anderen Seite aber auch neue Möglichkeiten für Unternehmen. Ausgehend von den Herausforderungen der Produktionsplanung und Steuerung als zentrales Element der Produktherstellung, z.B. Komplexität, Dynamik und neue Organisationsformen, werden bestehenden Methoden der Reihenfolgeplanung auf ihre Tauglichkeit zur Verwendung hin geprüft. Die Analyse zeigt, dass Aspekte wie die Ableitung von Handlungen und der Transfer von Wissen in unbekannten Situationen zu den größten Herausforderungen für bestehende Verfahren zählen. Die in der Arbeit neu entwickelte Methode zur dynamischen Auswahl und Anpassung von Reihenfolgeregeln in komplexen Fertigungssystemen mit bestärkendem Lernen greift diese Herausforderungen auf und untersucht mögliche Lösungsstrategien. Die im Rahmen der Arbeit neu entwickelte Methode wird über ein Spektrum an unterschiedlichsten Szenarien evaluiert und mit anderen Methoden verglichen. Dabei werden verschiedene Ausprägungen und Komplexitäts-Niveaus von Handlungen, der Beobachtungsraum und die Mengen an benötigten Daten detailliert analysiert. Schlussendlich zeigt sich, dass die neue Methode in der Lage ist, die Anforderungen an die Produktionsplanung- und Steuerung zu erfüllen und in bekannten wie in unbekannten Szenarien gut Leistung zu erbringen. Zusätzlich ist die Methode in der Lage menschenähnliche Leistungen zu bringen und kann in einem realen Anwendungsfall zur Unterstützung der Produktionsplanung und -Steuerung genutzt werden.
Artificial intelligence, most prominently in the form of machine learning, is shaping up to be one of the most transformational technologies of the 21st century. Auditors are among the professions forecasted to be the most affected by artificial intelligence, as the profession encompasses many highly structured and repetitive tasks. Automating such tasks would naturally increase the efficiency of financial statement audits. By allowing auditors to focus on higher value-added tasks, and the capability to analyze large volumes of data at a fracture of the time a human would need, artificial intelligence would also benefit the effectiveness of auditing. Despite these benefits, to this day, the actual adoption of artificial intelligence in the audit domain remains rather limited. The audit profession is highly regulated and has to consider requirements regarding, e.g. the application of professional standards, codes of conduct, and data protection obligations. Hence, the question arises of how audit firms can be supported in their efforts to adopt artificial intelligence and how machine learning systems can be designed to comply with the specific demands of the audit domain. The goal of this dissertation is to better understand the adoption of artificial intelligence in the audit domain and to actively support the adoption of artificial intelligence in auditing based on this understanding. To this end, we employ a mixture of research methods. On the one hand, the research presented here adopts a qualitative approach, examining the adoption of artificial intelligence and other advanced analytical technologies of the audit domain through taxonomy development and grounded theory. The findings of these studies inspire the second stream of work within this dissertation, which adopts a quantitative and design-oriented approach: It focuses on using machine learning to extract information from invoices for tests of details. Tests of details are essential substantive audit procedures used in nearly every audit. This dissertation proposes a new machine learning model architecture for information extraction from invoices, compares different machine learning models, and proposes design principles for machine learning pipelines for an audit application addressing the test of details through action design research.
The wide accessibility of the Internet and web-based programs enable an increased volume of online interventions for mental health treatment. In contrast to traditional face-to-face therapy, online treatment has the potential to overcome some of the barriers such as improved geographical accessibility, individual time planning, and reduced costs. The availability of clients' treatment data fuels research to analyze the collected data to obtain a better understanding of the relationship among symptoms in mental disorders and derive outcome and symptom predictions. This research leads to predictive models that can be integrated into the online treatment process to assist clinicians and clients. This dissertation discusses different aspects of the development of predictive modeling in online treatment: Categorization of predictive models, data analyses for predictive purposes, and model evaluation. Specifically, the categorization of predictive models and barriers against the uptake of mental health treatment are discussed in the first part of this dissertation. Data analysis and predictive modeling are emphasized in the second part by presenting methods for inference and prediction of mood as well as the prediction of treatment outcome and costs. Prediction of future and current mood can be beneficial in many aspects. Inference of users' mood levels based on unobtrusive measures or diary data can provide crucial information for intervention scheduling. Prediction of future mood can be used to assess clients' response to the treatment and expected treatment outcome. Prediction of the expected treatment costs and outcomes for different treatment types allows simultaneous optimization of these objectives and to increase the cost-effectiveness of the treatment. In the third part, a systematic predictive model evaluation incorporating simulation analyses is demonstrated and a method for model parameter estimation for computationally limited devices is presented. This dissertation aims to overcome the current challenges of predictive model development and its use in online treatment. The development of predictive models for varies data collected in online treatment is demonstrated and how these models can be applied in practice. The derived results contribute to computer science and mental health research with client individual data analysis, the development ofpredictive models, and their statistical evaluation.